PayPal

PayPal reported second-quarter 2026 revenue of $8.68 billion, up 5% year over year and ahead of consensus expectations of roughly $8.51 billion. Non-GAAP EPS came in at $1.38, comfortably beating the analyst estimate of around $1.28.

Transaction margin dollars rose 1% overall and 3% excluding interest on customer balances, with growth driven by Venmo, the credit business, and Braintree. Management pointed to branded checkout stabilizing after several quarters of pressure, a key metric investors have watched closely.

Venmo's debit-card monthly active accounts grew more than 50% year over year, and Venmo total payment volume rose 14% year over year to $93.81 billion, now representing 19% of total payment volume. Braintree TPV growth was described as mid-teens for the quarter.

Management raised full-year non-GAAP EPS guidance to $5.38, an increase from prior guidance that had called for a modest decline, and reiterated full-year transaction margin dollar targets of $15.6 billion ($14.5 billion excluding interest on customer balances).

On July 15, 2026, reports emerged that Stripe and private equity firm Advent International had made a joint takeover proposal to acquire PayPal for $60.50 per share, valuing the company at more than $53 billion, with Block also contributing equity to the roughly $17 billion equity portion of the deal.

PayPal's board convened on July 20, 2026 and viewed the offer as inadequate, effectively rejecting the price while reportedly leaving the door open to further negotiation rather than closing off the process entirely.

The company continues to execute a cost-reduction program, targeting $400 million in gross run-rate savings in 2026 as part of a broader plan to realize at least $1.5 billion in savings over the following two to three years.

PayPal also continued to lean on its broader partner ecosystem — including prior tie-ups with Google on commerce infrastructure and with Coinbase on stablecoin-based payment solutions — as part of its push to diversify revenue beyond core branded checkout.

Bulls point to the take-private interest from Stripe and Advent as validation that the market has undervalued PayPal's cash generation and Venmo/Braintree growth trajectory, with the possibility of a higher bid or a competing offer seen as a potential re-rating catalyst.

Skeptics note that a completed deal at any price is uncertain given its size and financing structure (reported at roughly $50 billion in committed bank financing) and would likely draw regulatory scrutiny given the scale of the combination between two major payments players.

On the standalone business, optimists highlight that branded checkout has stabilized and that Venmo monetization and Braintree volume growth are finally showing up in transaction margin dollars, supporting the case for accelerating organic profit growth independent of any deal.

Bears counter that competitive intensity in checkout and person-to-person payments remains high, and that much of the recent narrative has shifted from fundamental turnaround to takeover speculation, making it harder to isolate how much of current sentiment reflects deal odds versus underlying business momentum.