Eli Lilly

Lilly's Q1 2026 results, reported April 30, 2026, showed worldwide revenue up 56% year-over-year, well ahead of consensus expectations. The beat was volume-driven — unit demand grew roughly 65%, partially offset by lower realized prices as Mounjaro entered China's national reimbursement list and U.S. cash-pay rates declined.

Adjusted EPS came in significantly above consensus, with the magnitude of the beat one of the largest in recent company history.

Management raised full-year 2026 revenue guidance to $82–85 billion following the quarter, a $2 billion lift from prior guidance, reflecting strong underlying momentum in the GLP-1 portfolio and the April FDA approval of Foundayo.

On April 1, 2026, the FDA approved Foundayo (orforglipron) — Lilly's oral GLP-1 agonist for adults with obesity or overweight with weight-related conditions — marking the first once-daily GLP-1 pill that can be taken without food or water restrictions. Phase 3 data published in The Lancet showed orforglipron outperformed oral semaglutide on both blood sugar control and weight loss.

Lilly also disclosed pipeline progress during Q1: positive Phase 3 results for retatrutide in type 2 diabetes, and a combination readout for Taltz plus Zepbound in patients with both psoriasis and obesity.

On the business development front, Lilly announced agreements to acquire Orna Therapeutics, Centessa Pharmaceuticals, Kelonia Therapeutics, and Ajax Therapeutics, extending its reach into RNA medicines, targeted protein degradation, and gene therapy.

Bulls argue that the Foundayo approval removes the last structural barrier for GLP-1 adoption — a once-daily oral pill with no dosing restrictions dramatically expands the addressable patient pool beyond those willing or able to self-inject. Combined with Zepbound's superior weight-loss profile versus competing injectables, optimists see a multi-year growth runway that consensus may still be underestimating.

The bear case centers on pricing erosion: realized prices fell in Q1 as reimbursement deals and government programs compressed revenue per unit, and skeptics question whether volume growth can fully offset continued price headwinds at scale. HSBC maintains a Reduce rating, arguing that the GLP-1 total addressable market assumptions embedded in consensus may be too aggressive.

A key swing factor is competitive dynamics with Novo Nordisk: Wegovy's oral version is outselling Zepbound at a comparable launch stage, and the outcome of that head-to-head commercial contest will shape long-term GLP-1 market share assumptions for both companies.