ASML

Q1 2026 revenue came in at €8.8 billion, up 13% year-over-year, beating the analyst consensus of roughly €8.5 billion. Net income reached €2.8 billion, with basic EPS of €7.15 versus a consensus near €6.00 — a meaningful beat driven by favorable product mix and continued EUV demand.

Gross margin held at 53.0%, a sequential improvement from 52.2% in Q4 2025. System sales of €6.3 billion were split nearly evenly between Logic (49%) and Memory (51%), reflecting broad-based demand across advanced chip architectures.

ASML raised its full-year 2026 revenue guidance to €36–40 billion (from €34–39 billion previously), citing accelerating AI infrastructure investments and stronger customer capacity expansion plans. CEO Christophe Fouquet stated: "The semiconductor industry's growth outlook continues to solidify, driven by ongoing AI-related infrastructure investments."

On April 15, 2026, ASML shares fell roughly 6% despite the earnings beat and guidance raise, as tightening China export restrictions dominated investor sentiment. China's share of system sales dropped to 19% of overall Q1 sales, down sharply from 36% in Q4 2025.

The proposed U.S. MATCH Act — which would ban export of DUV immersion lithography systems to China and restrict servicing of existing equipment — represents a credible escalation risk. ASML has never shipped an EUV machine to China; the new threat targets the more commoditized DUV installed base and its high-margin service tail.

On May 5, 2026, CEO Fouquet stated publicly that "no one is coming for" ASML's EUV monopoly, reinforcing the company's competitive position while simultaneously lobbying Washington against further export restrictions that would harm European technology companies.

Bulls point to the AI capex supercycle as a multi-year demand floor: SK Hynix and Samsung each placed roughly $8 billion in EUV orders within a single month, and the 2025 year-end backlog of €38.8 billion — including €7.4 billion in EUV bookings — provides strong revenue visibility through 2027 and beyond.

Bears focus on China revenue erosion and High-NA adoption pace. TSMC has indicated it will not deploy High-NA EUV systems until at least 2029, delaying a key volume ramp. Meanwhile, any DUV service ban would directly compress margins on ASML's installed base in China.

The consensus-shifting factor is the trajectory of U.S. export policy. If the MATCH Act passes in its current form, analysts estimate meaningful downside to the €36–40 billion guidance range. If restrictions stabilize at current levels, the AI-driven demand story likely dominates and consensus price targets averaging €1,473 appear achievable.